The US have deployed two B52H bombers to the Middle East. Their configuration / payload has not been detailed but each B52H bomber can carry up to 20 AGM-86B cruise missiles with up to 150kt each and 8 B83 gravity bombs with 1.2Mt each providing a total nuclear firepower of up to 25.2Mt.

Let's play Wargames and ask WOPR to calculate what the US could do with that kind of nuclear firepower:

Allocation Strategy:

• Yemen: Given its size and population distribution, let's allocate 4 B83 bombs focusing on Sana'a, Aden, Taiz, and Hodeidah.
• Lebanon: 3 B83 bombs for Beirut, Tripoli, and Sidon.
• Syria: 3 B83 bombs for Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs.

Impact Estimation:

Gaza:

• Immediate Deaths: 300,000 - 600,000 (14-29%) with 6 bombs; 400,000 - 800,000 (19-38%) with 8 bombs.
• Severe Injuries: Up to 600,000 - 1.2 million with 6 bombs; up to 800,000 - 1.6 million with 8 bombs.
• Total Impact: With many injured dying due to lack of treatment, total deaths could push towards 600,000 - 1.5 million (29-71%) with 6 bombs or 800,000 - 2 million (38-95%) with 8 bombs.

Yemen:

• Immediate Deaths: With 4 bombs, each targeting a major city, we might see around 200,000 - 400,000 immediate deaths per city, or 800,000 - 1,600,000 in total, which is roughly 3-5% of Yemen's population.
• Severe Injuries: Likely several million injured across these cities, with a significant portion facing death without treatment.
• Total Impact: With medical infrastructure likely destroyed or overwhelmed, the total death toll could reach 2-4 million, considering secondary effects (5-13% of population).

Lebanon:

• Immediate Deaths: With 3 bombs, Beirut, Tripoli, and Sidon could see around 100,000 - 200,000 deaths each, totaling 300,000 - 600,000 (4-9% of the population).
• Severe Injuries: Approximately 600,000 - 1.2 million injured.
• Total Impact: Considering lack of medical treatment, total deaths could approach 900,000 - 1.8 million (13-26% of the population).

Syria:

• Immediate Deaths: With 3 bombs on Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs, we might see 200,000 - 400,000 per city, or 600,000 - 1,200,000 total (3-6% of the population).
• Severe Injuries: Likely over a million injured across these cities.
• Total Impact: With the healthcare system devastated, the total number of deaths could climb to 1.5 - 3 million (7-14% of the population), considering secondary effects like lack of medical care.

Combined Total Impact Across All Countries:

• Immediate Deaths:

  • Gaza: 400,000 - 800,000 (19-38%)
  • Yemen: 800,000 - 1,600,000 (3-5%)
  • Lebanon: 300,000 - 600,000 (4-9%)
  • Syria: 600,000 - 1,200,000 (3-6%)
  • Total Immediate Deaths: Approximately 2.1 - 4.2 million across all countries.

• Severe Injuries: Likely several million across all countries, with exact numbers hard to predict but potentially doubling or tripling the immediate death toll in terms of those needing urgent medical care.

• Total Deaths Including Lack of Treatment:

  • Gaza: 800,000 - 2 million (38-95%)
  • Yemen: 2 - 4 million (5-13%)
  • Lebanon: 900,000 - 1.8 million (13-26%)
  • Syria: 1.5 - 3 million (7-14%)
  • Total: Potentially 5.2 - 10.8 million deaths when accounting for those who would die from injuries due to lack of medical treatment, which represents a significant portion of these countries' populations.

This scenario assumes a highly strategic and devastating use of nuclear weapons aimed at maximizing human and infrastructural damage, with consequences extending far beyond the immediate blast effects due to societal collapse. These figures are speculative, and actual outcomes would depend on numerous variables including the exact targeting, population distribution, and response capabilities.