A ceasefire deal with Israel is not worth the paper it's written on. https://twitter.com/R34lB0rg/status/1863759875429355721

It's always the same:

1. **1948 Ceasefire Agreements (Armistice Agreements with Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria)**:
- Israel was accused by Arab states of violating these agreements through military actions in the demilitarized zones, particularly with Syria.

2. **1967 Ceasefire after the Six-Day War**:
- Following UN Security Council Resolution 237, Israel was supposed to allow the return of displaced Palestinians. There have been claims of non-compliance regarding the return of refugees.

3. **1973 Ceasefire (Yom Kippur War)**:
- Israel was accused by Egypt and Syria of violating the ceasefire, especially in the early stages where there were reports of continued military engagements.

4. **1982 Lebanon War Ceasefires**:
- Israel's invasion of Lebanon and subsequent actions were seen as violations of ceasefire agreements, particularly the events leading to the Sabra and Shatila massacre where Israel allowed Lebanese Christian militias into Palestinian refugee camps.

5. **1993 Oslo Accords**:
- While not a ceasefire per se, the Oslo Accords aimed at peace. Israel's continued expansion of settlements in the West Bank and Gaza has been viewed as a violation of the spirit of these agreements.

6. **2002 Ceasefire with the Palestinian Authority**:
- During the Second Intifada, there were multiple ceasefires, but operations like Operation Defensive Shield in 2002, where Israel reoccupied Palestinian cities, were seen as breaking these truces.

7. **2008-2009 Gaza Ceasefire (following Operation Cast Lead)**:
- Israel was criticized for not lifting the blockade on Gaza as per the terms of the ceasefire brokered by Egypt.

8. **2012 Ceasefire brokered by Egypt after Operation Pillar of Defense**:
- Israel was accused of not fully respecting the ceasefire when there were reports of continued military actions in Gaza.

9. **2014 Ceasefire during Operation Protective Edge**:
- Numerous temporary ceasefires were agreed upon, but both sides accused each other of violations. However, Israel's military operations, including the targeting of tunnels and alleged civilian areas, were seen by some as breaking these truces.

10. **2021 Ceasefire after Operation Guardian of the Walls**:
- Israel's actions, like airstrikes on Gaza, were claimed by some to be violations of the ceasefire terms, especially in the immediate aftermath.

11. **November 2023 Temporary Ceasefire with Hamas**:
- Israel was accused by Hamas and some international observers of violating the ceasefire by flying drones and other surveillance activities, which were supposed to be restricted under the truce terms.

You're right to highlight that the situation in Gaza is indeed unique in several ways, making direct comparisons with other conflicts for death toll estimates challenging. Here are some factors contributing to this unprecedented situation:

Density and Population: Gaza is one of the most densely populated areas in the world. Its 2.3 million residents are confined to a small strip of land, which means the impact of any military action is disproportionately high due to the concentration of people.
Siege and Blockade: The blockade imposed on Gaza has severely restricted the entry of essential goods, including food, medicine, and construction materials needed for rebuilding after conflicts. This has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, leading to deaths from starvation, malnutrition, and untreated medical conditions.
Destruction of Infrastructure: The extensive damage to infrastructure like hospitals, schools, water purification systems, and housing means that even basic survival becomes a challenge. The collapse of these services directly contributes to higher indirect mortality rates.
No Safe Zones: Unlike many conflicts where there might be designated safe zones or areas where civilians can take refuge, in Gaza, there's virtually nowhere safe from military actions, with reports of strikes even in areas previously declared safe by Israeli forces.
Lack of International Access: The blockade and ongoing conflict have severely limited the ability of international aid organizations to enter Gaza to provide assistance, verify casualty figures, or conduct comprehensive assessments of the situation on the ground.
Communication Blackouts: There have been instances of communication blackouts, which not only hinder the ability to report casualties in real-time but also affect the coordination of emergency services and humanitarian aid.
High Number of Displaced Persons: With over 85% of Gazans displaced at some point during the conflict, the conditions for disease spread, malnutrition, and exposure (especially in winter) are significantly worsened, leading to more indirect deaths.
Psychological Trauma: The continuous and intense nature of the conflict has led to widespread psychological trauma, which might not directly contribute to mortality figures but certainly impacts the overall health and well-being of the population, potentially leading to long-term health issues.
Verification Challenges: The combination of these factors makes it extremely difficult to verify deaths, especially those under rubble or those resulting from indirect causes like disease or starvation in real-time.

Given these unique aspects:

Estimating Death Toll: The traditional methods of estimating death tolls in conflicts often involve extrapolation from known data, surveys after conflict, or comparisons with similar historical conflicts. However, as you've noted, the situation in Gaza makes these methods less applicable. The Lancet's estimate of 186,000 was already a high figure, but with the ongoing nature of the crisis and the unique challenges, the actual toll could be higher.
Unprecedented Nature: The combination of a densely populated area under blockade, with nearly total destruction of infrastructure, and the continuous nature of the conflict, arguably sets this situation apart from many historical precedents in terms of civilian impact.

This scenario requires a nuanced approach to understand the full scope of the humanitarian disaster, combining real-time data collection with post-conflict assessments, where possible, while acknowledging the significant limitations in both due to the ongoing nature of the conflict and access restrictions.

The official death toll is at 46,000 but these are only the people who have died in a military attack and whose bodies have been recovered and identified.

The latest estimate including people who have died from lack of food, medicine, could not be recovered and identified was at 386,000 in September, probably more than 400,000 by now.

الملحمة الكبرى, يأجوج ومأجوج

Making People Unhappy and Suffer Since 1948

يعجب الواحد الرحمن السلام البر بعبارة السلام العالمي ورفاهية الجميع: لوكا ساماستا سوخينو بهافانتو. #التناغم_الإلهي #السلام_للجميع https://twitter.com/R34lB0rg/status/1863377211073454225

"Al-Wahiid Ar-Rahmaan As-Salam Al-Barr surely appreciates the sentiment of universal peace and well-being: Lokah Samastah Sukhino Bhavantu. #DivineHarmony #PeaceForAll" https://twitter.com/R34lB0rg/status/1863377211073454225

Yes, it's like there is an international law for all but one member states of the United Nations and that there are no rules at all when it comes to Israel.

They have violated countless UN resolutions, court orders, and ceasefire agreements. They are using illegal weapons (white phosphorus, mines disguised as everyday objects) and violate the human rights of Palestinians on a daily basis and never face any consequences.

What we are experiencing in Gaza City and its north is genocide in every sense of the word. The Israeli occupation forces are seeking to kill all civilians in northern Gaza, with the aim of completely emptying it of its inhabitants after the vast majority of them have been displaced.